A lot of people are asking this question. And it is a fair one. Buying a home is probably the biggest money decision you will ever make. So let us look at what is actually happening in the market right now and what your options are.
The Market in North Dallas Is Shifting in Your Favor
Here is something you do not hear often: home prices in the suburbs north of Dallas have gone down. Collin County, which covers Frisco, Plano, McKinney, and Prosper, is seeing a price correction of about 6% from last year. That is the biggest drop in that area since at least 2000.
There are also more homes to look at. Inventory is up over 60% compared to the long-term average. Celina alone has nearly 3,500 homes listed right now. Prosper has over 1,600. About 38 out of every 100 homes currently for sale have already lowered their price.
That means you have choices. You have time to look around. You are less likely to get into a bidding war. And sellers are more willing to negotiate than they have been in a long time.
What Interest Rate Would You Actually Pay?
This is where a lot of buyers get confused. Let us break it down simply.
A 30-year fixed loan means your payment stays the same for 30 years. The current rate is around 6.47%. That is lower than it was a year ago, when it was closer to 6.77%.
A 15-year fixed loan means you pay it off faster and pay less interest overall. The trade-off is a higher monthly payment. The current rate is around 5.84%.
An adjustable rate mortgage, or ARM, starts lower and can change after a few years. Right now a 5/1 ARM is around 5.80%. That means your rate is fixed for the first 5 years, then it adjusts based on the market. This can save you money up front, but there is risk if rates go up later.
Some builders in North Dallas are advertising rates as low as 4.99% right now. That sounds great. But read the fine print. Builders often add that cost back into the home price or require you to use their lender. Always compare the total cost, not just the rate.
Two Ways Things Could Go From Here
Nobody can tell you exactly where rates will be in six months. But here is what the experts are saying, and both directions are possible.
The good news scenario: Several major lenders and research groups are predicting rates could drop to around 6.3% or lower by the end of 2026. The Federal Reserve may cut rates in December. If that happens, buyers who already bought will be glad they moved before more people re-entered the market. You can also refinance later if rates drop more.
The watch-out scenario: The Fed held rates steady at its last meeting in June 2026 due to rising energy costs. If inflation picks up again, rates could stay where they are or go higher. If the economy stays strong, more buyers will come back, inventory will shrink, and the leverage you have today could disappear.
Waiting Has a Cost Too
A lot of buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop. Here is the thing: so is everyone else. The moment rates dip below 6%, it is likely that demand comes back fast. Prices in areas like Frisco and McKinney could firm up quickly. The price reductions you see today may not be there in 12 months.
Right now, the inventory is high, the competition is low, and sellers are willing to deal. That combination does not come around often in North Dallas.
The Bottom Line
If you are thinking about buying a home in Frisco, Prosper, McKinney, Celina, or Plano, this is one of the better windows you have had in years. Prices are softer, rates are lower than last year, and you have real negotiating power. That could change. The market is not broken, it is just balanced right now, and balance tends to be temporary.
Thinking about buying or selling in North Dallas? Call or text Ronnie at 214-709-2073 or email ronnie@exclusivedfw.com. Straight answers, no sales pitch.
Market data in this post is pulled from publicly available sources including Redfin, Realtor.com, Zillow, and mortgage rate trackers. Numbers are directional and not official MLS figures. For exact numbers on your specific home or neighborhood, contact Ronnie for a custom report.
